Increasing warehousing and transportation capacity combined with decreasing prices in both metrics are driving an economic slowdown in Ghana. The data are revealed in the Ghana Logistics Managers Index report for the second quarter 2023, which was released today.
The LMI for the second quarter (64.2) decreased by nearly three points from the first quarter’s 67.1. Any score above 50, however, indicates that logistics activities are expanding. A reading below 50 would reflect a contraction.
“The Ghana LMI is still in growth mode,” said Emmanuel Quansah, co-author of the LMI report. “Nevertheless, growth is at a decreasing rate, with the current economic situation in the country not stable enough to generate increasing growth and optimism among industry players.”
Inflation has begun an upward trend, Quansah noted, and the appreciation of the cedi against the dollar in the first quarter has been lost, with the dollar gaining against the cedi.
About the LMI
The Logistics Managers Index is a tool CARISCA created in 2022 to support decision-makers and improve businesses and livelihoods in Africa. By measuring combinations of inventory, warehouse and transportation activities and tracking the relationship between these variables, the LMI provides a timely measure of movement in logistics activities in Ghana.
The Ghana LMI is the first of its kind in Africa and a significant step toward supply chain efficiency, visibility and transparency in the country.
The LMI measures the quarterly growth or decline of Ghana’s logistics industry based on eight key components:
- Inventory levels
- Inventory costs
- Warehousing capacity
- Warehousing utilization
- Warehousing prices
- Transportation capacity
- Transportation utilization
- Transportation prices
The LMI summarizes the survey responses of supply chain and operations managers from multiple industries in Ghana. Researchers collected data for the second quarter report from April to June 2023 from 424 respondents.
A look ahead
In addition to being asked about current logistics activities, respondents are asked to predict movement in the LMI over the next 12 months. For the first time, respondents have predicted a future LMI (64.5) that is almost the same as the current score. They are slightly less optimistic than in the first quarter, when they predicted the LMI would rise to 69.3.
“This forecast paints a picture of mixed optimism in the market due to the country’s current macroeconomic state,” said Quansah. “The hopes of a quick turnaround in the Ghanaian economy after the country secured the $3 billion IMF credit facility early this year remains to be seen in the marketplace.”
The predictive nature of the LMI is clearly seen in the second-quarter results, Quansah added. Even though the LMI measures changes in logistics activities, it is highly reflective of the economy as a whole.
The Q2 2023 report, the sixth LMI report to date, offers several new features. These include: more detailed perspectives on each of the three primary components studied (inventory, warehousing and transportation); a comparison of manufacturing vs. service sector activities; and quotes from respondents on challenges they face and the value of the LMI.
“The Ghana LMI helps us with our current strategy to achieve our KPIs,” said Thomas Yeboah, logistics manager for the World Food Program in Ghana and an LMI respondent. “The trends and projections from the LMI guide the alignment of our logistics plans.”
CARISCA plans to replicate the tool in other African countries, beginning with Kenya in 2024. The researchers are looking for partners to help expand the LMI across the continent.
For prior reports, visit the LMI website: carisca.knust.edu.gh/LMI.
Senior executives and managers of Ghanaian organizations are invited to participate in the next quarterly LMI survey by visiting www.surveymonkey.com/r/Q3-23-LMI.